Reading a forecast

The published record

Every figure on HazardNet traces to one published record per district and forecast date. The record carries:

• District: one of the 64 districts of Bangladesh.
• Hazard class: one of the eight classes.
• Severity: a continuous value reported in two tracks (see below).
• Confidence score: the score for the chosen class, reported as uncalibrated.
• Horizons: 7-day and 15-day outlook windows.
• Forecast date: the run that produced the record.

Two severity tracks

Severity is reported side by side in two tracks. The skill track is the system's own score for the class it selected. The physics track is an independent estimate built from the meteorological drivers alone. The two can disagree, and when they do, the disagreement is shown rather than smoothed away. Neither track is an official warning level.

Horizons

Each run publishes two outlook windows: 7 days and 15 days. The same district and class can carry a different severity at each horizon, and both are published as computed.

Freshness and provenance

Every surface is stamped with the forecast date behind it. A stale run is labelled as stale. A missing run is shown as missing. No number is interpolated to fill a gap.