Tropical Cyclone: how HazardNet classifies and scores it
Wind-driven coastal hazard: sustained wind above 50 km/h, with the rain it carries.
How the model arrives at this class
The classifier reads the same drivers; the coastal districts concentrate the high scores because the drivers there are genuinely stronger, not because a coastal prior is applied.
Uncalibrated softmax, as above. A high confidence in Tropical Cyclone means the drivers resemble that class, not that a cyclone has been detected.
Advisory levels follow the published alert policy and the escalation boundaries of the responsible authorities; nothing here overrides them.
The independent physics cross-check
The 50 km/h floor means a calm week scores zero on the wind term regardless of rainfall.
Drivers: maximum sustained wind in the horizon (W, km/h) · precipitation accumulated over the horizon (P_total).
- Expression: 0.7*clip((W-50)/150) + 0.3*clip(P_total/300)
- That expression is executed against the pipeline’s own implementation by the content tests in CI: this page cannot silently describe a formula the pipeline no longer runs.
What the current run says about Tropical Cyclone
In the run this deployment ships (prediction date 2026-11-02), 8 district trajectories are classified as Tropical Cyclone across the continuous 15-day window (Days 1 to 15).
Highest model severity: Bandarban (0.30, Days 1 to 15), Khulna (0.30, Days 1 to 15), Kurigram (0.30, Days 1 to 15), Lalmonirhat (0.30, Days 1 to 15), Manikganj (0.30, Days 1 to 15).
These are classifications from the current run, not a forecast of impact. Advisory levels follow the published escalation gate alongside official Bangladesh authorities.
Season and geography
Typical season: April–May and October–November; the post-monsoon window is the more destructive. This describes when the hazard is climatologically plausible, not when this run flags it.
What this class cannot tell you
- No track, no storm structure, no surge: the hazard is inferred from district-aggregated weather, so landfall position and timing are not represented.
- Storm surge, the main killer on the Bangladesh coast, depends on bathymetry and tide, neither of which is an input.
- The 15-day horizon is inside the range where a numerical weather model still has skill for wind, but the boundary between 'cyclone remnant' and 'strong monsoon wind' is not something this proxy resolves.
- Confidence is published as an uncalibrated model score; no calibration accuracy is claimed.
Inputs behind it
Published assessments and official bulletins are the record; this site reports what they name.
- published forecast records
Questions and answers
Is a high Tropical Cyclone severity a prediction of damage?
No. The severity index is the model's continuous score for how strongly the drivers resemble this class, on a 0.00–1.00 scale. It is not a probability, not a percentage, and it does not model exposure. The physics cross-check is a second, independent estimate; where the two diverge, both numbers are shown rather than averaged.
Why is the confidence not a probability of Tropical Cyclone?
The published confidence is the model's own confidence over its eight classes, labelled uncalibrated_model_confidence in the data. It says how certain the classifier is about the class it picked, not how often that class actually materialises. No calibration has been fitted yet, which is also why nothing above the WATCH level can be published automatically.
Which districts does this page cover?
The district pages cover all 64 districts. This page summarises the districts the current run covers: a run can be partial, and the coverage stamp on the snapshot says exactly how partial, which the status page reports.
HazardNet is not an official warning service. Official warnings come from BMD and FFWC. In an emergency call 999.
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