Bandarban: current hazard outlook
What the model this deployment ships currently says about Bandarban across all 15 consecutive forecast days (Days 1 to 15), with peak severe dates and the independent physics cross-check beside it.
Current outlook from the model run
The run this deployment ships (prediction date 2026-11-01) covers Bandarban across the continuous 15-day trajectory (Days 1 to 15). Coverage of that run: covering 64 of 64 districts across the continuous 15-day daily trajectory (Days 1 to 15) (coverage status: complete).
- Continuous 15-day trajectory (Days 1 to 15, peak/target date 2026-11-09): Tropical Cyclone, severity 0.30, confidence Uncertain (< 0.70); physics cross-check 0.30, divergence 0.00.
How to read these numbers
- Severity index (0.00–1.00) is the model's damage-potential score for the class it selected: not a probability and not a share of damage.
- Confidence is the model's own certainty in that class, published as uncalibrated; it is not a measure of whether the forecast is correct.
- The severity track is an independent formula-based estimate. Divergence between the two tracks is normal and is shown rather than hidden.
- Each daily run covers 15 consecutive forecast dates (Days 1 to 15) with peak severe dates highlighted; Days 8 to 15 carry higher meteorological uncertainty than Days 1 to 7 and serve as a planning aid, not a storm-specific warning.
- Advisory levels follow the published alert policy and the escalation boundaries of the responsible authorities; nothing here overrides them.
Static baseline shipped with the app
Bandarban is in Chattogram division. The application's district table carries a static baseline for it: risk Moderate, baseline severity 0.52, baseline hazard Severe Storm, elevation 230 m, main crops Coffee & Broom Grass.
The baseline is a static entry shipped with the app: it is what the map colours a district with when the current run does not cover it, and it is not a model output. The outlook section above is the model output, and it exists only for the districts and horizons the current run covers.
Recorded hazard history
This deployment has no event archive loaded, so this page states no historical count for Bandarban. The HazardNet model card quotes 2,931 historical events (2000–2025) for the training prior, and that figure is reported rather than verified in this repository: the loader reports the drift against it instead of asserting it. Until the archive is loaded, this section stays empty rather than filling itself with an approximation.
Ground truth for this district
Published assessments and official bulletins are the record; this site reports what they name.
Questions and answers
What does the severity number for Bandarban mean?
It is the model's continuous score for how strongly the forecast drivers resemble the class it selected, on a 0.00–1.00 scale. It is not a probability, not a percentage of damage, and it does not account for how many people or how much cropland is exposed. The physics cross-check is a separate, formula-based estimate over the same drivers and is shown next to it.
Why does Bandarban sometimes have no outlook?
A run can be partial: the pipeline reports a coverage stamp naming how many districts it produced rows for, and a district outside that run keeps its static baseline colour on the map and shows no model row here. The status page reports the coverage of the run this deployment ships. Nothing is interpolated to fill the gap.
How current is this page?
Every page here is generated at build time from the artifacts the deployment ships. The forecast section states the prediction date it came from (2026-11-01), and the /status page states the age of each source against the SLO it is measured against.
HazardNet is not an official warning service. Official warnings come from BMD and FFWC. In an emergency call 999.
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