Validation status
What has been checked, what has not, and what stays research-private.
Current status
Forecast skill is not yet validated against observed outcomes. What is published today is a scorecard of per-episode detection counts, together with an explicit statement of what those numbers cannot support.
The scorecard
The scorecard reports detection counts for five historical episodes at an alarm threshold of 0.500 on the class severity score:
- Cyclone Amphan: Bangladesh landfall, 20 May 2020.
- Cyclone Yaas: Bangladesh coast, 26 May 2021.
- Cyclone Mocha: Cox's Bazar coast and Teknaf, 14 May 2023.
- Eastern flash floods: Feni, Cumilla and Noakhali, 20 to 30 August 2024.
- Northeast and coastal monsoon floods: Sylhet, Sunamganj and the hill districts, from 1 June 2025.
What those numbers cannot support
Detection counts for five episodes do not establish probability calibration, skill against a climatology baseline, or a false-alarm rate. Until validation against observed outcomes ships, treat every severity value as decision support only.
What is not published
Model code, dataset collection procedures, training and benchmarking are research-private. Only results and outputs are public, on this site and in the repository. For research collaboration or licensing enquiries, use the contact page.
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