The eight hazard classes, and what each one actually measures
HazardNet classifies every district-horizon unit into one of eight classes and scores it. These pages state what each class means, how its independent physics cross-check is computed, what it cannot tell you, and what the current run says.
Pick a hazard
Each page below is generated from the same artifacts this deployment ships, so the numbers in them match the map.
Current run at a glance
Prediction date 2026-09-16; 74 district-horizon units classified across 0 districts.
Riverine and monsoon flooding, scored from how much rain falls and how hard it falls. Current run: 0 district-horizon units classified as Flood.
Short-duration, high-intensity flooding — the burst case of the rainfall proxy. Current run: 71 district-horizon units classified as Flash Flood.
Wind-driven coastal hazard — sustained wind above 50 km/h, with the rain it carries. Current run: 3 district-horizon units classified as Tropical Cyclone.
Heat load against the rainfall the horizon is expected to bring. Current run: 0 district-horizon units classified as Drought.
Exceedance above 30 °C, plus persistence. Current run: 0 district-horizon units classified as Heat Wave.
How far the minimum falls below 16 °C, plus persistence. Current run: 0 district-horizon units classified as Cold Wave.
Vegetation and burn risk from heat, wind and drying. Current run: 0 district-horizon units classified as Fire.
Squall wind plus a convective downpour. Current run: 0 district-horizon units classified as Severe Local Storm.
Shared rules across every class
The eight classes above are the model's entire output vocabulary (`Models/labels.json`), enforced on ingest. A hazard outside the list is not mapped onto a nearest neighbour — an unrecognised label is rejected and reported.
Confidence bins (Certain ≥ 0.85, Probable 0.70–0.85, Uncertain < 0.70) describe the model's own certainty in the class it chose. They are not accuracy, and no accuracy figure is published because no held-out evaluation has been run on real labels.
Nothing above the WATCH level can be published automatically while no calibration map exists, and nothing at all can be published while the pipeline stamps no model version — the alert engine records that as `publication_blocked` rather than issuing the alert.
Questions and answers
Why only eight classes?
Eight is the model's output vocabulary (Models/labels.json), fixed by the training data and enforced on ingest. A hazard outside that list is not mapped onto a nearest neighbour: the event loader rejects and reports the label instead, and the forecast ingest refuses the row.
Which class is most likely in the current run?
The current-run counts are listed above, and each hazard page repeats them. What the counts do not tell you is which is likely — they describe one model run, not a climatology.
Content reviewed 2026-09-16. HazardNet is decision support, not an official warning service — see the methodology for scope and limitations.